Forex Trading Guidelines for Beginners

Daytrading: Information for your everyday trader

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YOUTUBE VIDEO - Three Important Forex Trading Guidelines For Winning Trades

YOUTUBE VIDEO - Three Important Forex Trading Guidelines For Winning Trades
This Youtube video will give forex traders explanations of why cash versus online trades are the same, why currency pairs move, and how to analyze individual currencies, instead of technical indicators, for a complete view. Resources and tools included. Here is the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWSMyhLgRbc&t=2s
You can follow along with the illustrated article here:
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/blog/2013/10/02/forex-trading-guidelines/

https://preview.redd.it/vm16p84utk051.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d9322f8a29b6633544d1d59b30b8476369a9214
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

Three Important Forex Trading Guidelines For Winning Trades

Three Important Forex Trading Guidelines For Winning Trades
This illustrated article will give forex traders explanations of why cash versus online trades are the same, why currency pairs move, and how to analyze individual currencies, instead of technical indicators. Resources and tools included. Here is the article:
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/blog/2013/10/02/forex-trading-guidelines/

https://preview.redd.it/q9gu1ak7zsv41.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=4094ffd895c7cff5b48992d65f890e3eb44234b2
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

Mining • GUIDELINES of Pennants forex trading strategy

submitted by btcforumbot to BtcForum [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

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  3. [English] AWS Certified Cloud Practitioner 500 Practice Exam Questions $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-certified-cloud-practitioner-practice-exams-c/?couponCode=AWSOCT 4 Days left at this price!
  4. [English] 34h 0m The Complete Train the Trainer Bootcamp - Beginners-Advanced $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-train-the-trainer-bootcamp-beginners-advanced/?couponCode=THANKS1 3 Days left at this price!
  5. [English] 26h 49m Leading Effective Meetings - You Can Lead Effective Meetings $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/leading-effective-meetings-you-can-lead-effective-meetings/?couponCode=THANKS2 3 Days left at this price!
  6. [English] 44h 40m SEO TRAINING 2021: Complete SEO Course + WordPress SEO Yoast $10.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/online-seo-training/?couponCode=2OCT999 4 Days left at this price!
  7. [English] 8h 9m Facebook Dynamic Ads (Facebook Dynamic Retargeting) MASTERY $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-dynamic-ads/?couponCode=OCT999 4 Days left at this price!
  8. [English] 56h 8m The Complete Digital Marketing Course for Local Businesses $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/local-digital-marketing/?couponCode=2OCT999 4 Days left at this price!
  9. [English] 29h 1m BEST of Facebook Ads: Facebook Ads 2021 ULTIMATE PRO Edition $13.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-ads-2021/?couponCode=OCT999 4 Days left at this price!
  10. [English] 39h 52m BEST of SEO: #1 SEO Training & Content Marketing Course 2021 $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/seo-training-2021/?couponCode=2OCT999 4 Days left at this price!
  11. [English] AWS Certified Developer Associate Practice Exam Questions $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-developer-associate-practice-exams/?couponCode=AWSOCT 2 Days left at this price!
  12. [English] 29h 21m AWS Certified Developer Associate Exam Training 2020 [NEW] $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-certified-developer-associate-exam-training/?couponCode=AWSOCT 2 Days left at this price!
  13. [English] 31h 16m The Agile Methodology for Project Risk Managers $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-agile-methodology-for-project-risk-managers/?couponCode=LEARN2020OCT 3 Days left at this price!
  14. [English] 37h 7m Risk Management for Business Analysts (PMI-RMP/IIBA-ECBA) $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/risk-management-for-business-analysts-pmi-rmpiiba-ecba/?couponCode=LEARN2020OCT 3 Days left at this price!
  15. [English] 42h 20m Project Management Professional Certification Program (PMP) $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/project-management-professional-certification-program-pmp/?couponCode=LEARN2020OCT 4 Days left at this price!
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30 Free and Best Selling Discounted Udemy

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  2. [4.4] [0h 52m] Online Course on NPV and IRR
  3. [3.9] [3h 23m] Microsoft Power BI: Latest 2020 Beginner to Expert Modules
  4. [4.3] [5h 4m] The Complete HTML5 Course: From Beginning to Expert
  5. [4.2] [3h 49m] Introduction to Forex- learn to trade forex by yourself
  6. [4.2] [2h 23m] OBS Studio - Ultimate Livestreaming Guide to OBS Studio
  7. [4] [1h 18m] How to Earn from Photography: Absolute Beginners Guide
  8. [4.3] [1h 40m] The Complete 3i Time Management Productivity System
  9. [3.6] [11h 23m] The Complete Online Teaching Masterclass: Teach Online Today
  10. [4.7] [0h 39m] Let's create a ML Classifier, Neural Regressor from Scratch
  11. [4.3] [12h 40m] Python And Flask Framework Complete Course For Beginners
  12. [4.1] [7h 16m] Python Complete Course For Python Beginners
  13. [New] [0h 58m] Facebook Ads Targeting Strategies For Success Like Pro
  14. [Bestseller] [56h 35m] Mega Digital Marketing Course A-Z: 12 Courses in 1 + Updates
  15. [3.6] [1h 51m] Make Money Online: Mindset Training + Real-Life Examples
  16. [4.6] [2h 9m] Learn To Read & Write Music - Go From Beginner To Advanced
  17. [New] [0h 51m] Niche Research Course: Pro Secrets of Niche Research in 2021
  18. [4] [6h 37m] Inverter : Learn most important power electronics converter
  19. [3.9] [0h 38m] Fast track to ML, Data Science and Steganography
  20. [4] [20h 20m] Ultimate Content Writing Masterclass: 30 Courses in 1
  21. [4.4] [5h 56m] The Complete Daily Positive Habits Building Course
  22. [Highest Rated ] [1h 40m] Public Speaking: You Can Give Great Financial Presentations
  23. [4.4] [2h 5m ] Public Relations: How to Be a Government/PIO Spokesperson
  24. [4.4] [29h 33m] Facilitation: You Can Be a Facilitator
  25. [4.6] [7h 12m] Complete Good Sleep Habits Course - Sleep Better Tonight!
  26. [Highest Rated ] [7h 34m] The Complete Telecommuting Course - Remote Work - Work Life
  27. [4.4] [2h 49m] The Complete Growth Mindset Course - The Mindset for Success
  28. [4.4] [3h 55m] The Complete Nonverbal Communication Course - Body Language
  29. [4.4] [5h 7m ] The Complete Google Drive Course - Mastering Google Drive
  30. [3.4] [2h 33m] Live Streaming - The Complete Course - Zoom Twitch OBS Skype
  31. [4.4] [2h 20m] The ABCD Method for a Fit Life
  32. [3.8] [18h 20m] EXCEPTIONAL Creative Writing: 30 Days COMPLETE Course
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  4. [4.7] [9h 21m] AWS Certified Developer Associate Exam Training 2020 [NEW] $9.99
  5. [4.6] [390 questions] AWS Certified Developer Associate Practice Exam Questions $9.99
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  13. [4] [42h 20m] Project Management Professional Certification Program (PMP) $12.99
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  15. [Highest Rated ] [31h 16m] The Agile Methodology for Project Risk Managers $12.99
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submitted by ViralMedia007 to FREECoursesEveryday [link] [comments]

List of 70+ Udemy and Some Best Discounted

List of 70 plus Udemy and Some Best Discounted ( Code Valid from few hours to upto 2 days )
  1. [English] 0h 49m Media Training -Radio: How to Speak Effectively on the Radio https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-speak-on-radio/?couponCode=455D2FA6B100BA01CD9D 2 Days left at this price!
  2. [English] 1h 36m Charisma: You Can Develop Charisma https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-develop-charisma/?couponCode=6BDAE9933FB569BED8C1 2 Days left at this price!
  3. [English] 0h 53m Personal Communication-Introduce Yourself With Confidence https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-introduce-yourself/?couponCode=C1DA326C0525CE2CE591 2 Days left at this price!
  4. [English] 29h 12m Leadership: You Can Speak Like a Leader https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-speak-like-a-leade?couponCode=64F401DDD08142A231B9 2 Days left at this price!
  5. [English] 1h 34m Public Speaking Skills: Give a Great Informational Speech https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-give-an-informational-speech/?couponCode=A2DBDF7C2F45ACDD316D 2 Days left at this price!
  6. [English] 0h 59m Sales Skills Training: Free Sales Generation Seminars https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-deliver-a-free-sales-generation-semina?couponCode=47D73D11D2A7EC7D6FBC 2 Days left at this price!
  7. [English] 0h 53m Public Relations: Speak Effectively at Press Conferences https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-speak-at-a-press-conference/?couponCode=1EEA0257E6A81D7A3FBA 2 Days left at this price!
  8. [English] 1h 56m Complete Management Coaching Course - Executive Coaching https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-management-coaching-course-executive-coaching/?couponCode=D8B3ADC8240A82506319 2 Days left at this price!
  9. [English] 5h 46m Become a Successful Online Teacher - Teach Online Students https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-udemy-bestsellers-online-course-creation-unofficial/?couponCode=3CD9C87E21C76A849072 2 Days left at this price!
  10. [Turkish] 5h 5m Oğuz Hoca'yla Sorunsuz Matematik-3 (TYT, KPSS, DGS, ALES) https://www.udemy.com/course/oguz-hocayla-sorunsuz-matematik-3-tyt-kpss-dgs-ales/?couponCode=OGUZHOCAPROBLEMLER 1 Day left at this price!
  11. [English] 2h 49m Learn HTML- Beginner to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-html-beginner-to-advanced/?couponCode=462B17B62209CD079DB1 2 Days left at this price!
  12. [English] 1h 18m How to Earn from Photography: Absolute Beginners Guide https://www.udemy.com/course/earn-from-photography-complete-guideline/?couponCode=EARNPOCT2020F2 2 Days left at this price!
  13. [English] 6h 3m The Complete Android Ethical Hacking Practical Course C|AEHP https://freebiesglobal.com/the-complete-android-ethical-hacking-practical-course-caehp-5 2 Days left at this price!
  14. [English] 8h 49m TCP/IP Socket Programming HandsOn-Windows & Linux in C & C++ https://www.udemy.com/course/tcpip-socket-programming-handson-windows-linux-in-c-c/?couponCode=SOCKET_PROG20 2 Days left at this price!
  15. [English] 20h 20m Ultimate Content Writing Masterclass: 30 Courses in 1 https://www.udemy.com/course/ultimate-content-writing-masterclass-30-courses-in-1/?couponCode=WRITING28 2 Days left at this price!
  16. [English] 7h 53m Complete Law of Attraction MasterClass - Manifest Your Goals https://www.udemy.com/course/lawofattractionmasterclass/?couponCode=LAWOFATTRACTION 2 Days left at this price!
  17. [English] 3h 23m Microsoft Power BI: Latest 2020 Beginner to Expert Modules https://www.udemy.com/course/microsoft-power-bi-latest-2020-beginner-to-expert-modules/?couponCode=POWER29 2 Days left at this price!
  18. [English] 2h 0m The Ultimate Guide to Scrum Fundamentals- 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/scrum-genman/?couponCode=GETSCRUM 2 Days left at this price!
  19. [Arabic] 6h 44m التسعير السيكولوجي https://www.udemy.com/course/pricing-psychology/?couponCode=ECCC0837587E3536A6E2 2 Days left at this price!
  20. [English] 0h 46m Mindfulness For Depression, Anxiety, PTSD, Stress Sampler https://www.udemy.com/course/mindfulness-for-depression-anxiety-ptsd-stress-sample?couponCode=7B330FB6CB29EAF8D7EC 2 Days left at this price!
  21. [Spanish] 2h 50m [2020] COBIT version 5 Fundamentos https://www.udemy.com/course/cobit-5-fundamentos/?couponCode=OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  22. [Spanish] 1h 10m [2020] Service Desk Fundamentos https://www.udemy.com/course/service-desk-lider-certificacion/?couponCode=OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  23. [Spanish] 1h 2m Mejores Prácticas de Trabajo Remoto-Remote Worker CertiProf https://www.udemy.com/course/remote-worker-trabajo-remoto/?couponCode=OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  24. [English] 1h 18m Make Money From Home As a Transcriptionist: 10 Opportunities https://www.udemy.com/course/work-home-transcription-jobs/?couponCode=6A392F6ABDB69E35C569 2 Days left at this price!
  25. [English] 10h 6m CATIA V5 3D Design & Modeling Course for Beginner https://www.udemy.com/course/catia-v5-3d-design-modeling-course-for-beginne?couponCode=OCTEND 17 hrs left at this price!
  26. [English] 3h 13m Affinity Publisher Guide - Affinity Publisher for Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/affinity-publisher-guide/?couponCode=60C5AAC8301103E15A98 2 Days left at this price!
  27. [Spanish] 8h 5m Aprende cálculo integral desde cero https://www.udemy.com/course/aprende-calculo-integral-desde-cero/?couponCode=49F116345F722309DC08 2 Days left at this price!
  28. [English] 2h 31m AWS Business Essentials - The Business Value of Amazon AWS https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-business-essentials/?couponCode=AWSBUSINESS 1 Day left at this price!
  29. [English] 3h 13m PowerPoint Essentials for Business Presentations https://www.udemy.com/course/powerpoint-essentials-for-business-presentations/?couponCode=OCT2020 1 Day left at this price!
  30. [English] 56h 30m Corporate Finance https://www.udemy.com/course/corporate-finance/?couponCode=B2A8FAB800A27473FAAC 13 hrs left at this price!
  31. [English] 10h 44m QuickBooks Desktop Job Costing https://www.udemy.com/course/quickbooks-desktop-job-costing/?couponCode=8339216EE9B309F3C0A3 13 hrs left at this price!
  32. [English] 1h 24m Brain-friendly reading - Understand 300 books per year https://www.udemy.com/course/brain-friendly-reading-understand-300-books-per-yea?couponCode=STARTREADING 2 Days left at this price!
  33. [English] 2h 29m Shopify Guide: Start your own clothing brand with Shopify https://www.udemy.com/course/start-your-own-clothing-brand-with-shopify/?couponCode=F4DA690ABE790611EEFF 2 Days left at this price!
  34. [English] 2h 33m Shopify guide: The complete shopify store creation course https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-shopify-store-creation-course/?couponCode=4B1F31E169BB9AF277E8 2 Days left at this price!
  35. [English] 1h 12m Learn Google Docs https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-google-docs/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  36. [English] 2h 1m Learn Advanced HTML5 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-html-5-course-from-scratch/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  37. [English] 0h 48m Learn Google Forms https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-google-forms/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  38. [English] 1h 53m Learn Advanced CSS3 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-css-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  39. [English] 2h 15m Learn Advanced JavaScript https://www.udemy.com/course/the-learn-javascript-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  40. [English] 0h 32m Learn Microsoft PowerApps https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-microsoft-powerapps-/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  41. [English] 0h 44m Learn Trello https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-basic-trello/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  42. [English] 1h 50m Learn Advanced jQuery https://www.udemy.com/course/the-learn-jquery-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  43. [English] 0h 47m Gmail https://www.udemy.com/course/gmail-productivity/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  44. [Spanish] 1h 10m Física: Estática - Fuerzas - Equilibrio - Ejercicios https://www.udemy.com/course/fisicaestatica/?couponCode=40DA54990CA840FC16CB 1 Day left at this price!
  45. [English] 3h 33m PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds (PUBG) For Beginner Gamers https://www.udemy.com/course/playerunknowns-battlegrounds-pubg/?couponCode=PUBGBGEXPOCT312020 2 Days left at this price!
  46. [English] 1h 29m Fast Video Ranking No Matter Your Niche With XRanker360 SEO https://www.udemy.com/course/fast-video-ranking-seo/?couponCode=FVRNMEXPOCT312020 2 Days left at this price!
  47. [Spanish] 3h 27m [2020] Scrum Master Certificación Mundial https://www.udemy.com/course/scrum-master-espanol/?couponCode=OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  48. [Spanish] 1h 46m Agile Coach Introducción al Rol https://www.udemy.com/course/agile-coach/?couponCode=OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  49. [English] 4h 2m Intuition Development for Beginners | Energy Healing & Tarot https://www.udemy.com/course/intuition-energy-healing/?couponCode=INTUITIONFREE 1 Day left at this price!
  50. [English] 2h 33m Vegan Cooking Class Vegan Thai Food Easy Vegan Recipes https://www.udemy.com/course/vegan-cooking-class-vegan-thai-food-easy-vegan-recipes/?couponCode=VEGANTHAI28102020 1 Day left at this price!
  51. [English] 0h 36m Learn Basics of Adobe Photoshop CC 2020 for Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-basics-of-adobe-photoshop-cc-for-beginners/?couponCode=2618FE9D22523F56914C 20 hrs left at this price!
  52. [English] 2h 45m Master Spring & Angular Material with a full web application https://www.udemy.com/course/master-spring-angular-material-with-a-full-web-application/?couponCode=A0BECB22BC8C8D9C98B6 1 Day left at this price!
  53. [English] 1h 46m Portrait Photography for Absolute Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/mastering-portrait-photography/?couponCode=PORTRAITOCT2020F3 1 Day left at this price!
  54. [English] 2h 17m Complete Guide to InVideo and InVideo Video Creation https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-guide-to-invideo-and-invideo-video-creation/?couponCode=89061B53CBC29FF9F2EC 1 Day left at this price!
  55. [English] 4h 51m New Way to Make Money at No Budget! Drop Servicing WordPress https://www.udemy.com/course/create-drop-servicing-website-with-wordpress/?couponCode=FREEPROMOTION 1 Day left at this price!
  56. [English] 5h 5m Advance Maths: Part III: Statistics & Probability https://www.udemy.com/course/advanced-mathematics-part-iii-statistics-probability/?couponCode=SAM2612 15 hrs left at this price!
  57. [English] 2h 29m Advance Maths: Part II: Fourier Transform https://www.udemy.com/course/advance-course-in-mathematics-part-ii/?couponCode=SIMABHI2612 15 hrs left at this price!
  58. [English] 4h 1m Advance Maths: Part I: Linear Differential Equations https://www.udemy.com/course/advanced-course-in-mathematics-part-i/?couponCode=SEEMABHI2612 14 hrs left at this price!
  59. [English] 53h 42m Managerial Accounting / Cost Accounting https://www.udemy.com/course/managerial-accounting-cost-accounting/?couponCode=74CEB0E3645D8ED18DEA 12 hrs left at this price!
  60. [English] 118h 56m Accounting–Financial Accounting Total-Beginners to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/financial-accounting-accounting-cycle/?couponCode=FBA9292E89D59C671FB3 12 hrs left at this price!
  61. [English] 100h 13m QuickBooks Online 2020 Vs. QuickBooks Desktop 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/quickbooks-online-vs-quickbooks-desktop/?couponCode=8548658665DC1E3B1CB9 12 hrs left at this price!
  62. [English] 5h 32m Python Demonstrations For Practice Course https://freebiesglobal.com/python-demonstrations-for-practice-course-4 1 Day left at this price!
  63. [English] 6h 23m Learning Analytics Through R https://www.udemy.com/course/learning-analytics/?couponCode=LEARNING28 1 Day left at this price!
  64. [English] 9h 40m Tableau Training: Master Tableau For Data Science https://www.udemy.com/course/tableau-training-master-tableau-for-data-science/?couponCode=TABLEAU28 1 Day left at this price!
  65. [English] 1h 36m Computer Basics 2020:Essential Computer Skills And Knowledge https://www.udemy.com/course/computer-basics-2020-basic-computer-skills-and-fundamentals/?couponCode=DISCOUNT-100 1 Day left at this price!
  66. [English] 49h 1m The Complete 2020 PHP Full Stack Web Developer Bootcamp https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-php-full-stack-web-developer-bootcamp/?couponCode=FREEBEEOCT 1 Day left at this price!
  67. [English] 3h 50m Substance painter 2020 - The complete 3D Texturing course https://www.udemy.com/course/substance-painter-2020-the-complete-3d-texturing-course/?couponCode=FREETIME 1 Day left at this price!
  68. [Spanish] 4h 17m Excel para negocios y empresas | ACTUALIZADO 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/excelparanegocios/?couponCode=13E45874992DC0C540CD 1 Day left at this price!
  69. [English] 3h 49m Introduction to Forex- learn to trade forex by yourself https://www.udemy.com/course/introduction-to-forex-learn-to-trade-forex-by-yourself/?couponCode=1F0D68F4944923897966 1 Day left at this price!
  70. [English] 2h 15m Business Networking for Success and Company Growth: Part Two https://www.udemy.com/course/business-networking-for-success-2/?couponCode=BNSCGEXPOCT302020 1 Day left at this price!
  71. [English] 2h 13m Business Networking for Success and Company Growth: Part One https://www.udemy.com/course/business-networking-1/?couponCode=BNSCPOEXPOCT302020 1 Day left at this price!
  72. [English] 3h 50m Substance painter 2020 - The complete 3D Texturing course https://www.udemy.com/course/substance-painter-2020-the-complete-3d-texturing-course/?couponCode=FREETIME 1 Day left at this price!
  73. [English] 1h 27m Business Networking for Success and Company Growth: Part 3 https://www.udemy.com/course/business-networking-for-success-3/?couponCode=BNSCEXPOCT302020 1 Day left at this price!
  74. [English] 1h 51m Lean Tools and Techniques for Flow and Pull https://www.udemy.com/course/lean-tools-and-techniques-for-flow-and-pull/?couponCode=B035585AB9A21B8432CE 12 hrs left at this price!
Popular courses form $9.99
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  2. [English] 7h 53m Introduction to Cloud Computing on Amazon AWS for Beginners $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/introduction-to-cloud-computing-on-amazon-aws-for-beginners/?couponCode=AWSOCT 2 Days left at this price!
  3. [English] [390 questions] AWS Certified Cloud Practitioner 500 Practice Exam Questions $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-certified-cloud-practitioner-practice-exams-c/?couponCode=AWSOCT 2 Days left at this price!
  4. [English] 34h 0m The Complete Train the Trainer Bootcamp - Beginners-Advanced $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-train-the-trainer-bootcamp-beginners-advanced/?couponCode=THANKS1 1 Day left at this price!
  5. [English] 26h 49m Leading Effective Meetings - You Can Lead Effective Meetings $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/leading-effective-meetings-you-can-lead-effective-meetings/?couponCode=THANKS2 1 Day left at this price!
  6. [English] 44h 40m SEO TRAINING 2021: Complete SEO Course + WordPress SEO Yoast $10.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/online-seo-training/?couponCode=2OCT999 2 Days left at this price!
  7. [English] 8h 9m Facebook Dynamic Ads (Facebook Dynamic Retargeting) MASTERY $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-dynamic-ads/?couponCode=OCT999 2 Days left at this price!
  8. [English] 10h 39m Lead Generation MASTERY with Facebook Lead & Messenger Ads $11.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-lead-ads-course/?couponCode=OCT999 2 Days left at this price!
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(FINAL) Part VIII: My 10 Minutes/Day Trading Strategy

(FINAL) Part VIII: My 10 Minutes/Day Trading Strategy
(FINAL) Part VIII: Checklist & Trade Examples
This concludes the series. If you have any questions, please post them on the thread so everyone else can benefit from getting an answer. I will do follow up posts with my scans of the 5pm EST timeframe. I can't commit to doing this every day, but I will do my best to keep it somewhat regular. At least this way you will see what my eyes are looking for in terms of real-time setups.
You can view the previous parts here:
Part I: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h0iwbu/part_i_my_10_minuteday_trading_strategy/
Part II: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h7m1jh/part_ii_10_minuteday_trading_strategy/
Part III: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h97sv7/part_iii_my_10_minutesday_trading_strategy/
Part IV: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hcssjp/part_iv_my_10_minutesday_trading_strategy/
Part V: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hd70rd/part_v_my_10_minutesday_trading_strategy/
Part VI: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hee2o0/part_vi_my_10_minutesday_trading_strategy/
Part VII: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hhf2mk/part_vii_my_10_minutesday_trading_strategy/


Checklist for my strategy:

  1. 2-candle setup occurring either at/through the UBB/LBB or as a bounce off the MBB
  2. Indecision candle / weak candle followed by a candle that makes a higher high and higher close (for a bull setup) or a candle that makes a lower low and lower close (for a bear setup).

  1. The setup candle should not close above/below its 38.2% retracement level
  2. For a trade off the UBB, stochastic should be overbought.
  3. For a trade off the LBB, stochastic should be oversold
  4. For a trade off the MBB, stochastic are not as relevant. For the ideal MBB trade, you want the stochs to be crossed in the direction you plan on trading in. This is what I would call a strong guideline, not a fixed rule
  5. Make sure you have as much “open sky” in front of your trade as possible. You don’t want to be selling into support or buying into resistance. One big trick here is to make sure the Bollinger bands are sufficiently widened. Each BB can act as support/resistance.
*I will keep this last section short and sweet. I could go on forever posting examples of good & bad trades.*
GOOD SETUPS:

https://preview.redd.it/t5p5h0ruqw751.png?width=2744&format=png&auto=webp&s=923a7abd2f7c69a8083930a523fba39d560d667e
https://preview.redd.it/s19hw0ruqw751.png?width=2744&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f7bcb906e058f49aaf2c7378ac0b1fdbf16ad63
https://preview.redd.it/x43xqqruqw751.png?width=2744&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c7af838351b8653a8953c1a458ffc6672ac8af8
https://preview.redd.it/wtgcsrruqw751.png?width=2744&format=png&auto=webp&s=a22717ee9026d25023eb2107bc302dc2b676a644
BAD SETUPS:
https://preview.redd.it/bdboo1vvqw751.png?width=2744&format=png&auto=webp&s=26289f65d91de3a911fb986f02c17840227d488a
https://preview.redd.it/n0xxt1vvqw751.png?width=2744&format=png&auto=webp&s=b5a7921f1bee4c176ab6012995692e8cb36215fe
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)

Hello, dummies
It's your old pal, Fuzzy.
As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great.
What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. I do my bit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post.
That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way.
We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps.
Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy.
TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle.
Ready? Let's get started.
1. The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life
The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows:
Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself.
Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part.
You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus.
That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it.
Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets?
2. A Hedging Taxonomy
The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now.
(i) Swaps
A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one.
Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered.
The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game.
I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging.
There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested.
Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure).
(ii) Forwards
A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me.
Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways.
People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances.
These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them.
(iii) Collars
No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray!
To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts.
(3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs
You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years.
First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA.
Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire.
Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking?
Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama.
Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details.
I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here.
Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post.
*EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
submitted by fuzzyblankeet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Elliott Waves Series Part 2 - The Broad Concept

Elliott Waves Series Part 2 - The Broad ConceptYou can find Part 1 here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hieuyw/introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory_overview_of/
The primary value that the Wave Principle (from here on out, abbreviated to WP) confers on market analysts is the ability to provide context for market behaviour. Having context is incredibly important. To put it simply, the WP can be thought of as a compass. Whenever you feel lost looking at a chart (ANY chart, ANY market!), the WP will help get you back on track.
Clearing Up Some Misconceptions About Elliott Wave Theory:

  1. R.N. Elliott first discovered the WP in the 1930s using charts of the stock market. Many misinformed people believe that the WP works “best” on stocks and has been adapted for use in other markets. This is simply false. To be clear - Elliott discovered the WP. He did not invent the WP. The WP is based on human social nature and therefore it cannot be invented. It has always existed. What Elliott did was to start codifying rules and guidelines around how human social nature can be charted. Ultimately, Elliott’s objective was to be able to predict future human behaviour using the historical record. The expression of human social nature generates forms and patterns. As these forms and patterns repetitive, they have enormous predictive value.

  1. Another major misconception around the WP is that it requires a lot of discretionary analysis, and more often than not, analysts shoehorn price action to fit the Elliott Wave model. In fact, the WP has very clear rules (these rules are inviolate under any circumstance) and guidelines (these guidelines should be adhered to almost 100% of the time). While there is a discretionary element involved in counting waves, properly trained wave analysts will ultimately arrive at a consensus because following the rules and guidelines narrows the possible wave counts very quickly. Very often Wave analysts will have 2 counts at hand in terms of where they think the market is presently situated. These counts are known as the preferred count and the alternative count. These counts are validated and invalidated using price levels derived from Elliott’s rules and guidelines. The most dissent I expect from two educated Wave analysts is that one analyst’s preferred count could be the other’s alternative count. This dissent quickly resolves itself as the price action develops and validates or invalidates one count or the other. This dissent usually occurs based on wave patterns of one higher degree. It is very rare that I have seen dissent on immediate market movements.

  1. I didn’t know this was a major misconception, but someone brought this up in my first post, “I stated that Elliott Theory has better success when working in consolidations or extreme ranging markets.” This is completely false. The WP doesn’t work better or worse regardless of the market or the market conditions. That would be like saying that breathing air only works occasionally. The WP is NOT a strategy, it is the definitive model for charting human herding behaviour. Human behaviour does not show up only in periods of consolidation or range-bound markets. The markets are themselves driven by human behaviour, therefore the WP is always equally applicable. From a trading perspective, the WP is perfectly suited to capturing trends.

  1. Well, what about news events? What about supply and demand theory? What about fundamentals?! Doesn’t any of this stuff matter?? In short, the answer is no. I have previously stated that I am a macro-based investor. This is certainly true. Much of the research I consume has to do with market fundamentals and global-macro analysis. This research helps me form a view that I can overlay with the WP. From a trading perspective, when it comes to actually pulling triggers and taking positions, my decisions are always guided first and foremost by the WP. Here is a fantastic quotation from Bob Prechter on this topic, “Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. The path of prices is not a product of news. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Its movement reflects a repetition of forms that is independent both of presumed causal events and of periodicity.”
The Bottom Line:
Elliott Wave Theory is the best forecasting tool in existence. It has determined that the market’s progression unfolds in waves. Waves can be thought of as patterns that carry the market in a direction. There are a fixed number of the different kinds of patterns these waves can take. If you really boil this down to its essence, successfully applying the WP is as simple as identifying what kind of wave the market is currently in.
I will end this now. The next part will deal with the overriding wave structure that the market is in, the different kinds of waves we will see, and why this wave structure exists in the first place.
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

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Guidelines in Forex Trading

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